Aim low. Do not expect to catch shark, think small, enjoy the process, and you may be the lucky one. You may cath some smaller fish first, and then that fish may become bite for the shark of your life. You never know. I know that once I really went with objective to catch shark, we did not catch anything.
Go fishing. Prefferably into the ocean, which kind of really increases your chances to catch shark.If it is your first time - chances go up even more. "Beginners luck" is kind of big help when you are into sharks. Florida, around the road to Key West Point is a good place to start your journey of shark-hunting. At least we were lucky there to get the lifetime opportunity.
Have a great team. Even if you will not catch the shark, you will have time of your life. Needless to say that team work is important in the process. As getting the shark (500 pound one) out of the water will take around 1,5 hours, you better have team that is ready to help out, stand by, take over, support etc... In our case, there was a moment of "sacrificing" Riga Black Balsam to fishing Oracle. It worked. Again, each member of team brings something unique to the table.
Traders bid up oil prices last week, based on reports of major escalation of hostilities in Yemen, just south of Saudi Arabia. Things are hot and getting hotter in Yemen. Now that Saudi Arabia has engaged in the fight -- dropping bombs and probably sending troops across the border -- we may see an oil price recovery much sooner than many people expected.
What's going on?
Iran has a long-term plan to surround the Saudis. It's a matter of raw geography. That is, Iran is located northeast of Saudi Arabia. Plus, Iran has a well-entrenched presence in Syria and Lebanon, to the north of Saudi Arabia.
Saudis’ primary motivation in crashing oil prices last November was to harm Iran. In other words, low oil prices are not about hurting Russia because of Ukraine; nor slowing the advance in North American fracking. The Saudi idea is to squeeze the bank accounts of the Mullahs in Tehran.
Now we see the Iranian blowback. Iran-backed rebels have knocked out the former government in Yemen, which was friendly to both Saudi Arabia and the U.S. The Saudis have a full-scale religious war on their southern border, with opponents fully backed by Iran.
What comes next?
We're in the midst of a historic breakdown of nation-states across the Middle East. Former map lines that came out of World War I -- drawn by Great Britain and France, after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire -- are being erased. For now, modern notions of the nation-state are near irrelevant. Tribalism is triumphant.
Iran is working to become the regional hegemon; certainly as the U.S. withdraws. In a way, it also explains Iran's major effort to build nuclear capabilities -- the race for a Persian atom bomb, notwithstanding "negotiations" ongoing over delaying or deferring the actual event.
Meanwhile, we live with low oil prices, certainly compared with this time last year. Too many barrels; not enough demand. Can it all change? And how fast? And in what direction? Is it time to begin buying into many a beaten-down oil or oil service play?
The U.S. rig count has plummeted due to a drought of new drilling capital. Looking ahead, there are indications that U.S. oil output may cease growing in the next two or three months. The fast-climbing U.S. production curve will flatten out.
The U.S. rig count has plummeted due to a drought of new drilling capital.We'll see, right? Keep in mind that U.S. oil output was (note past tense) the world's key "swing" production over the past few years. That's all about to change.
Yes, we saw increased oil flow from Iraq last year, too -- which is problematic in the near future. Libya output rose last year as well; and has fallen in recent months. Civil wars will do that to an oil producing region.
In other parts of the world, Russian oil output is problematic. Brazilian offshore oil isn't growing nearly as fast as optimists expected a few years ago. Canadian oil sands are flowing, to be sure, but constrained by costs and transport bottlenecks.
All in all -- balancing the risks -- I'm inclined to think that there's upside to energy investing just now. More upside than risk of a major downward crash. The key is to buy into well-run oil plays, oil services and equipment plays.
At current prices interesting stocks are Schlumberger (SLB: NYSE), Halliburton (HAL: NYSE) -- soon to merge with Baker Hughes (BHI: NYSE) -- Weatherford (WFT: NYSE).
Big ones, like Chevron, Shell or Total are also good plays for time being.